Wednesday, January 09, 2008


This morning I discovered that, once again, I am surprised to be surprised at how callow the media's analysis of the New Hampshire primary has been. They aren't actually interested in the outcome. Oh there they go again, busily pretending that the Democratic nomination is a sporting event and that "winning" is the only thing. It is disgustingly misleading. But I'll put that on the back burner for now.

The real issue, especially on the endless television coverage but more than adequately represented in the press and even on the blogs, is "How could we possibly be wrong?" After all, like a bunch of self-centered adolescents who can't see past the end of their collective noses, it is all about them. They go on, they obsess, they talk endlessly about themselves, their predictions. They figuratively and, in the case of Tweety literally, hold their heads in their hands and moan, mourning the loss of perfection that is them.

What aren't they talking about while they are pissing and moaning about their failure?

  • Delegates: How many delegates they are, who has won them, and what the impact might be. I have been hunting for that information and thus far I haven't found it. When I find a reliable source I'll let you know. I am still grounded in reality.

  • The actual vote: Senators Obama and Clinton EACH INDIVIDUALLY won more individual votes than did John McCain. That does not speak well for the Republican chances and ought be pointed out.

  • Impact of the predictions: A larger than expected proportion of the uncommitted vote voted in the Republican primary. Could it be that they expected Obama to win in a landslide so used their vote to keep Romney from securing the Republican 'win''? I don't know bit I know it is worth investigating.

  • The other Democrats: Governor Richardson will eventually leave the race, probably on February 6. To whom will he toss his support? Will it matter? What about Senator Edwards? It is hard to imagine that he won't support Senator Obama. During the last debate he clearly tossed his lot with Senator Obama, something he didn't need to do. Even if he doesn't recommend an alternate to his supporters, they seem much more likely to move toward Senator Obama. That is a large block of folks. Why hasn't anybody noticed?

  • I'm tired and fed up with folks who should know better so I'm just going to close with the hope that, with all the time on their hands, the media tosses us a little analysis that doesn't amount to navel-gazing. Please, I shouldn't have to dig all this stuff up myself. And I don't really care if you were right or wrong.

    Update I
    : Landru points out in his usual kind and gentle way that the electoral vote is available to one who isn't too busy fuming to find it.

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