Note: I posted this previously here. Since then I have had an update or two and an error pointed out. My original post is in black. My changes are in green.
Some of you may see this as wild-eyed but honestly, these are my seriously conservative predictions. After all the court cases, of course.
Obama wins the Presidency with 353 electoral votes, McCain gets 185. Barely
The popular vote goes for Obama 53% to 46%. (I would be surprised if it were actually this close. Early polling and standing in line for 6-8 hours favors the young and enthusiastic.) Today I think this is much too conservative. But I'll live with it for now.
The Senate moves in the right direction but not enough. 58 will caucus with the Democrats including Lieberman and Saunders, a pickup of 7. Dole and Coleman lose. Bonus: Lieberman is stripped of his committee chairmanship but he wimps out and continues to caucus with the Democrats because they will still listen to him snivel. It has been pointed out to me by the Proprietor of Minions that if Dole and Coleman lose the number must be 59. So I am modifying this to 59 even though the Coleman prediction is shaky.
Bonus: The house will reflect the current will of the electorate with 259 Democrats and 176 Republicans. Rep. Pelosi will be challenged for the leadership by the arrogant yet stupid Rahm Emmanuel. The outcome is unclear :)
Surprises: The biggest surprise is also the most obvious one. An African American wins the Presidency of the United States. That really is quite stunning. The electorate ignores all the nonsense and distractions, the scare tactics, the "Marxist Muslim" and votes for the best person. Who would have guessed that? Some might even think it a surprise that the electorate is more interested in its 401K than in terrorists.
Also Dole's loss and Franken's win in the Senate. The new electoral map wherein the South isn't solidly Republican -- North Carolina, Virginia, and Florida go for Obama and Missouri and Georgia are marginal.
Wishful thinking: The house, under the leadership of John Conyers, will actually pass some meaning electoral reform. Federal elections will occur on a national holiday. A constitutional amendment enumerating a right to vote will pass both the Senate and the House. After an initial flurry of ratification it will languish. Right wing zealots will scream about voter fraud and Mexicans voting. Given the total lack of power of the Republican party it will be ratified shortly after the next presidential election.
More wishful thinking: The Republican Party is torn asunder by the purist right wing zealots who believe they are the "real Americans" but who are actually less than 20% of the electorate. Eventually actual conservatives will get fed up with being powerless and either toss the wingnuts out of the party (because they don't have enough money to keep the party upright) or they will bail and form the "Conservative Party" taking all of the brains lots of the right-moderates with them. This will take a while because denial isn't just a river in Egypt.