Friday, November 07, 2008

Prediction Post-Mortem

I haven't posted about the election. I guess I'm too emotional to write about it. I heard a guy on the radio say that it felt like November 23, 1962. I know what he means.

But I'll harsh on myself and to a PM on my predictions. Here goes, my original predictions in burgundy.

Obama wins the Presidency with 353 electoral votes, McCain gets 185. The popular vote goes for Obama 53% to 46%.

Actual totals as of today courtesy of Nate Silver: 365 to 173. Popular vote (still not concluded) looks to be about 53% to 46%.
Not too shabby.

The Senate moves in the right direction but not enough. 58 will caucus with the Democrats including Lieberman and Saunders, a pickup of 7. I am modifying this to 59 even though the Coleman prediction is shaky.

Thus far we have 57 with three outstanding. Minnesota (Coleman/Franken) is within 236 votes. There will be a recount. Alaska (Begich/Stevens) is still counting. Stevens(R) is ahead by by about 3500 votes. In Georgia Chambliss (R) is 3% ahead but the winner must have a majority which no one has. There will be a runoff/revote early in December. The final tally will be between 57 and 60.

Dole and Coleman lose. Dole lost. Coleman is too soon to tell.

Lieberman is stripped of his committee chairmanship but he wimps out and continues to caucus with the Democrats because they will still listen to him snivel.
Too soon to tell but I remain optimistic.

The house will reflect the current will of the electorate with 259 Democrats and 176 Republicans. Current tally is 255 to 173 with 7 outstanding. I'm in the neighborhood.

Rep. Pelosi will be challenged for the leadership
by the arrogant yet stupid Rahm Emmanuel. The outcome is unclear :) Wrong, wrong, wrong. I didn't consider the possibility that Rahm would be offered and take Chief of Staff.

Overall I'm not embarassed. Many professionals did worse. I live to predict another day.